Australian Open 2024 Men's Preview, Favorites, Dark Horses. Can Anyone Stop Djokovic in Melbourne?

While there are a handful of stars attempting to nip at Novak Djokovic's heels, this tournament is once again his to lose. He already has 11 titles to his name and is a rightful favorite as such

World No. 1 Novak Djokovic hasn’t lost a tennis match at the National Tennis Centre at Melbourne Park since 2018 and is alone atop the Australian Open odds board to repeat as champion for the fifth consecutive time and eleventh overall when the tournament begins on Sunday, January 14.

The event will seem a bit empty, with Rafael Nadal and Nick Kyrgios withdrawing due to injury. Still, Djokovic will get plenty of competition from the likes of Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner, and Daniil Medvedev.

Australian Open 2024 Men's favorites

Novak Djokovic

Novak Djokovic hoisted his first Australian Open title in 2005 and 19 years removed, he isn’t just in the conversation, he is the conversation as well as the betting favorite to win his eleventh Aussie title.

He’s coming off a 2023 season where he reached the final in all four Grand Slam events, with wins at the Australian, French Open, and US Open as well as a runner-up to Carlos Alcaraz in five sets at Wimbledon.

Carlos Alcaraz

In just four short years, Alcaraz has gone from a little guy with potential to one of the best players in the world with a pair of majors on his mantle and a burgeoning rivalry with Djokovic. He defeated Novak in an epic come-from-behind victory in the Wimbledon final but has lost two straight to the World No. 1.

Alcaraz skipped this event in 2022. The World No. 2 chose to forego any preseason warmup events entering this event other than an exhibition with de Minaur, which is an interesting way to prepare for an event considering he hasn’t gone past the third round.

Daniil Medvedev

Russian No. 1 Daniil Medvedev is a player who can beat anyone on tour, especially on hard courts, where he went a second-best 46-11 against the best hitters in the world. He’s a two-time finalist here (2021, 2022) with a dependable game from both sides of the center stripe.

Medvedev fired the fourth-most aces on the hard stuff last season, but his return game is what gives him the ability to beat anyone. Medvedev led the tour with a 31.7% break rate on the hardcourts and has a winning record against the top seeds in the draw except for Djokovic (5-10) and Alcaraz (2-3).

Jannik Sinner

If there's one player who can defeat both Alcaraz and Djokovic, it would be Jannik Sinner. The young Italian had a breakthrough season in 2023 with seven titles (six on hardcourts) and was ATP Tour co-leader in overall match wins alongside Alcaraz (65).

Sinner has a huge, multi-faceted game. In 2023, he fired the 12th-most aces, and the Italian No. 1 boasts a 29% break rate, which was fourth on tour behind only Djokovic, Alcaraz, and Medvedev. He offers some of the biggest strokes from both wings and can finish a ball into the backdrop against anyone, as evidenced by his .500 record against the speedy Alcaraz.

Players to watch

Alexander Zverev

Alexander Zverev seems to have fully recovered from the horrific knee injury suffered at the 2022 French Open. The German national ended his 2023 campaign with the sixth-most hard-court victories (35) with a pair of titles but suffered a three-set defeat to Hubert Hurkacz in the final of the United Cup.

Zverev fired the third-most aces with an above-average 20% break rate on the cement. The No. 6 seed opens against compatriot Dominik Koepfer, and if he survives, there's a possible quarterfinal clash with Alcaraz.

Grigor Dimitrov

Grigor Dimitrov has quietly re-found the form that led him to a No. 3 world ranking in 2017. He won the 13th-most matches on the hard stuff last season and opened his 2024 campaign with a strong, straight-sets victory over Holger Rune to win the Brisbane warmup event.

Dimitrov finished his 2023 season with the 13th-most aces and the 12th-highest break rate on hardcourts. He dazzled in Brisbane and is coming off his best season of his last five. He opens his event against Marton Fucsovics with a potential fourth-round matchup against Medvedev.

Ben Shelton

Ben Shelton catapulted on the scene this time last year with a terrific run to the quarterfinals.

He then failed to win consecutive matches in his next 16 events before reaching the semifinals of the US Open. He went on to claim the hard-court title in Tokyo and is currently on a two-match winning streak after dropping his opening match of the season to Roman Safiullin.

Shelton has one of the biggest serves on tour, had a great run here last year, and is poised to make a strong showing. The No. 16 seed opens his draw with a difficult opponent in Roberto Bautista Agut with a possible fourth-round rematch of their US Open semifinal with Djokovic.