Harris vs. Trump: Key Debate Showdown

Presidential debates are a big deal in America. Tonight's scheduled debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, may matter more than most.

Despite Kamala Harris status as vice-president for more than three years and a candidate for president for seven weeks, she is still unknown for many Americans. In a recent New York Times survey, 28% of likely November voters said that they needed to know more about the Californian.

That poll showed the race a statistical dead heat – a finding most recent surveys have also indicated, both nationally and in key battleground states. The 2024 presidential campaign has been full of historic tumult, but the American electorate is still sharply – and narrowly - divided.

That is the reason why tonight's debate is essential as chsnging moods of voters can be the difference between victory and defeat for the candidates

Harris' showdown in Philadelphia is an opportunity for her to flesh out the details before an audience of tens of millions.

This opportunity carries some risks, as Ms. Harris could present herself and her positions in ways that might harm her electoral chances. She has previously struggled with responding to difficult questions under pressure, and her hesitation to participate in media interviews early in her campaign has limited her ability to sharpen her communication skills.

Although she aims to position herself as the candidate of change, moderators—and the former president—are likely to challenge her on the Biden administration's record, particularly in areas where Democrats face polling weaknesses, such as border security and inflation. She will also need to clarify why she has distanced herself from several progressive policies she supported during her unsuccessful 2020 Democratic presidential run. Recently, she has adjusted her stances on issues like a fracking ban, decriminalizing border crossings, and nationalizing healthcare. While she frames these shifts as responses to changing circumstances, some voters may view them as politically opportunistic.

For Trump, the debate offers a chance to regain momentum after a period where Democrats, energized by their new nominee and convention, dominated the news cycle. Known for thriving in the spotlight, Trump often sets the tone of political discussions, keeping opponents off-balance while promoting his key issues, such as immigration and trade, which enjoy broad public support.

However, Trump faces his own challenges. His lackluster performance in the June debate with Biden went largely unnoticed due to his opponent's verbal missteps. But Ms. Harris is likely to be a more agile debater, and Trump will need to provide more precise answers. At a recent economic forum in New York, he struggled to articulate his childcare policies. Any similar faltering during the debate could give Democrats ample material for their campaign.

Additionally, Trump will need to be cautious in his approach toward Ms. Harris, who is only the second woman to be a presidential nominee and the first woman of color. If he appears overly aggressive or dismissive, it could further erode his already low support among female voters.

The two candidates have used markedly different ways of preparing for Tuesday night’s event. The vice-president – and former prosecutor - has been in Pittsburgh, a few hours drive east of Philadelphia, holding mock debates and reviewing her policy proposals. The move also allowed her to campaign and benefit from some local media coverage in the largest and most crucial battleground state of Pennyslvania.

Although election day won’t arrive until November, early voting is set to begin this month in some key battleground states – including in pivotal Pennsylvania.

So while this debate could help set the political environment for the last two months of the 2024 presidential race, it also will be the last chance for the two candidates to reach some voters in states where every ballot matters.