Liverpool vs PSG UCL 2nd Leg Preview and Prediction

Liverpool welcomes Paris Saint-Germain to Anfield with a narrow one-goal advantage in their UEFA Champions League last-16 tie. However, their 1-0 win in Paris was miraculous.

PSG dominated the first leg, creating numerous chances, while Liverpool managed just two shots, totaling a mere 0.27 expected goals (xG)—their lowest in a Champions League knockout game. But when an opportunity arose, Harvey Elliott seized it, scoring in his third consecutive UCL match.

The real hero of the night, however, was Alisson. The Brazilian goalkeeper made nine crucial saves, setting a personal best for goals prevented (2.3, based on xGOT data). If he delivers another flawless performance at Anfield, he could break a record held since 2003-04 with the most saves across two legs without conceding.

To reduce their reliance on Alisson, Liverpool must better contain PSG’s skilled dribblers. In the first leg, the French side completed 19 dribbles—the most against the Reds in the UCL since Porto recorded 21 in 2017. Ousmane Dembélé led with five, while Vitinha’s ability to retain possession will be key for PSG’s comeback hopes.

Liverpool has overturned a first-leg deficit in two of their last five UCL knockout ties, while PSG have staged memorable comebacks—most notably their 4-1 win over Barcelona in 2024. With no away goals rule in effect, PSG will look to defy the odds once again.

Historically, Liverpool and PSG have each won their respective home matches in their previous Champions League encounters. In 2018-19, Liverpool triumphed 3-2 at Anfield, while PSG responded with a 2-1 victory in Paris. Can the Reds hold on, or will PSG script another stunning European comeback?

Liverpool vs PSG Head-to-Head

Before Liverpool’s win at the Parc des Princes last week, they had played four previous games against Paris Saint-Germain. Each side won their respective home matches.

Their only Champions League meetings occurred in the group stage in 2018-19, the season in which Liverpool became champions of Europe for a sixth time. At Anfield, PSG fought back from 2-0 down to level, only for substitute Roberto Firmino to score a 92nd-minute winner.

In the return match, the goal scoring was confined to the first half. Juan Bernat and Neymar put PSG in control before a James Milner penalty halved the deficit.

PREDICTION: Liverpool 2 vs PSG 1  (BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE @1.47)

TOTAL ODDS - 10.40