Manchester City vs Manchester United Prediction: FA Cup Final Preview
City could beat their neighbours three times in the same campaign for the first time since 1969-70, after their league double over the Red Devils this term.
Man Utd have lost six of their last seven meetings with Man City in all competitions (W1), including each of the last three.
Condemned to the shadows of Manchester City in recent years, Manchester United will be praying for a statement response when they meet their fierce rivals in the FA Cup final at Wembley Stadium on Saturday.
Pep Guardiola’s side secured a record-breaking fourth straight Premier League title on Sunday following their 3-1 victory over West Ham to pip Arsenal to top-flight glory. Man City became the first English side to go four in a row in England’s top-flight competition, with this their chance to grasp another double under their Catalan mastermind.
It is an entirely different story for Man Utd, whose manager Erik ten Hag is reportedly under pressure to produce a battling performance – at the very least – at the end of a disappointing campaign in which they finished eighth in the Premier League table.
Indeed, after their underwhelming conclusion in league competition, Man Utd are the lowest-ranked side to play in the FA Cup showpiece since Arsenal beat Chelsea 2-1 in 2020. There have been six previous occasions of a side finishing eighth or lower facing that season’s champions in the final – Aston Villa (10th) beat Manchester United 2-1 in 1957, but since then such sides have lost all five finals by an aggregate score of 15-0.
Yet, owing to the Red Devils’ storied history in this competition, Ten Hag’s team will be looking to win the FA Cup for the 13th time; only Arsenal (14) have ever won more. Meanwhile, defending champions City are aiming to win this trophy for the eighth time and for the first time in consecutive years.
More silverware for Guardiola’s title-winning machine appears likely, considering their neighbours have failed to win the trophy in four of their last five final appearances. The exception came in 2016 against Crystal Palace under Louis van Gaal (2-1).
Another trophy celebration here would mark City’s third league and FA Cup double, a feat only previously achieved by Man Utd (1993-94, 1995-96 and 1998-99) and Arsenal (1970-71, 1997-98 and 2001-02). City did so in 2018-19 and 2022-23, and thus could become the first team ever to do so in consecutive campaigns.
This match is a repeat of last year’s final, where City beat United 2-1 to complete the second part of their league, FA Cup and Champions League treble. Gündogan, now of Barcelona, scored a decisive double as Bruno Fernandes cancelled the German’s quickfire opener with a first-half penalty.
Guardiola’s team also won Premier League meetings against their city rivals this season, beating them 3-0 at Old Trafford and 3-1 at the Etihad Stadium. The last time they won their neighbours three times in the same campaign was in 1969-70.
Looking further back paints a grim picture for Ten Hag, whose team have lost six of their last seven meetings with Manchester City in all competitions (W1), including each of the last three in a row. United last lost four consecutively against them between 2013 and 2014.
Ten Hag may take confidence from the fact United have won five of their last seven FA Cup games against Man City. However, even then, both defeats in that run have come in games at Wembley – in the 2011 semi-final and 2023 showpiece.
With Guardiola and Ten Hag meeting in that final of this competition last year, this is the first time two Premier League managers have gone head-to-head in more than one FA Cup final (excluding replays).
As has become the norm for Guardiola’s relentless side during the title run-in, City are unbeaten in their last 35 matches across all competitions (W29 D6). Though this run includes their Champions League quarter-final exit to Real Madrid, that game counts on record as a draw as it went to extra-time and penalties.
That streak is the second-longest run by a top-flight club in English football history, after Nottingham Forest’s run of 40 in 1978.
City have also won each of their last 11 matches in the FA Cup; excluding byes and void games, there have only been two longer winning runs in the competition’s history – Blackburn Rovers (20 between 1883 and 1886) and Chelsea (13 between 2009 and 2011).
Man Utd, meanwhile, beat Liverpool 4-3 in the FA Cup quarter-finals and defeated Coventry City on penalties after a 3-3 draw in the semis to reach this stage. The Red Devils had only conceded 3+ goals in two of their previous 111 matches in the competition, while they’ve never done so in three consecutive games.
PREDICTION: Manchester City to win @1.36
