Uefa Champions League Matchday 5 Preview And Prediction
The pressure is starting to ramp up as the inaugural league phase heads towards the business end. The league phase of the UEFA Champions League has reached its midway point and the second half kicks off on 26/27 November.
We detail the key talking points and stats as the 36 teams look to plot their courses towards the knockout stages.
Bayern Munich vs PSG
When it was announced that UEFA was re-jigging the group stage of the Champions League into a single league phase, the assumption was teams like Bayern Munich and Paris Saint-Germain would ensconce themselves in the top eight and stay there.
That has not been the case as we approach Matchday 5 of 8, with Bayern in 17th place and PSG flailing down in 25th, the Ligue 1 champions on course for elimination if they can’t climb the table.
There is therefore work to be done by both European giants, starting with them meeting each other at the Allianz Arena on Tuesday.
Bayern have won two and lost two of their four games. They began with a thumping 9-2 win over Dinamo Zagreb but followed that up with a 1-0 loss at Aston Villa and a heavy 4-1 defeat at Barcelona. They did secure a hard-fought 1-0 victory over Benfica last time out, though.
Bayern does rank first in the Champions League this season for the fewest opposition passes allowed per defensive action (PPDA), which may at least be some comfort to Vincent Kompany as he looks to implement a specific way of playing. On average, Bayern have allowed just 7.4 passes by their opponent before attempting to intervene with a defensive action.
As for the visitors, it has been a poor European campaign to this point for the French champions. They started with an unconvincing late home win against Girona on MD 1 but followed that up with just one point from three games against Arsenal, PSV and Atlético Madrid.
In fairness to PSG, we judged them to have had the toughest league phase opponents when the draw was made, but they still need points on the board, and fast.
Their loss to Atlético last time out was particularly frustrating. PSG had 22 shots to their opponents’ four and saw 71.3% of the ball at the Parc des Princes. They have been on level terms in the Champions League for 276 minutes this season and have attempted 56 more shots than their opponents (70 for, 14 against). Despite that, they’ve conceded more goals (3) than they’ve scored (2) in those minutes.
Bayern Munich vs PSG Head-to-Head
Bayern Munich and PSG have met on 13 previous occasions in the Champions League, with this being the most-played fixture between German and French sides in the competition.
Bayern have won their last three games against the Parisians in the Champions League, played between 2021 and 2023. The only team to have ever won more consecutive matches against PSG in European competition is Juventus, who beat them in six in a row between 1989 and 1997.
They last met in the last 16 of the 2022-23 Champions League, with Bayern winning the first leg 1-0 in Paris and the second leg 2-0 in Munich.
PSG has failed to score in each of their last three games against Bayern, which is their longest run of games without a goal against an opponent in European competition.
PREDICTION: OVER 2.5 @1.36
Barcelona vs Stade Brestois 29: OVER 2.5 @1.31
Manchester City vs Feyenoord: HOME WIN @1.21
Sporting Clube de Portugal vs Arsenal: OVER 1.5 @1.21
Liverpool vs Real Madrid: HOME WIN OR DRAW @1.27
Internazionale Milano vs RasenBallsport Leipzig: HOME WIN @1.48
UEFA EUROPA LEAGUE
Manchester United vs Bodo-Glimt: HOME WIN @1.27
Real Sociedad vs Ajax: UNDER 3.5 21.34
Tottenham Hotspur vs Roma: HOME WIN OR DRAW @1.25
AZ Alkmaar vs Galatasaray: OVER 2 @1.24
Nice vs Rangers: HOME WIN OR DRAW @1.26
UEFA CONFERENCE LEAGUE
Heidenheim vs Chelsea: OVER 2.5 @1.44
Fiorentinavs Pafos: HOME WIN @1.35
Mlada Boleslav vs Real Betis: 2 DNB @1.30
Lugano vs Gent: UNDER 3.5 @1.35
Cercle Brugge vs Heart of Midlothian: HOME WIN OR DRAW @1.21
